Critical Review
Speech of Indian National Security Advisor; Mr Ajit Doval
at Core Group Meeting of Munich Conference 14 in New Delhi
By Colonel Ashok Kumar Singh
I take this liberty to write my critical
review on the key note opening speech given by Mr Ajit Doval; National Security
Advisor of Indian Republic at core group meeting of Munich Security Conference
14 held in New Delhi.
Core Group Meeting of Munich
Security Conference is an important event to brain storm various issues of
security facing the world. It is an event which is closely watched and analyzed
by defense and security experts across the globe. Key note address of Mr Doval naturally
carried a significant importance specially so as it was delivered by him in his
capacity of National Security Advisor of new govt of Indian Republic.
Expectations from Key Note Speech
Mr Ajit Doval was expected to
deliver his key note speech focusing on regional and global security issues with
special emphasis on Indian foreign and security policy. Speech was expected to
focus on global and regional security challenges such as the conflicts in the
Middle East and the situation in Afghanistan after the 2014 NATO withdrawal, questions
of maritime security in the Indo-Pacific, cyber security, Euro-Atlantic and
Asian regional security architectures as well as global governance and the role
of emerging powers.
Brief of Speech Delivered
Mr Ajit Doval started his speech
highlighting changing dynamics of security challenges wherein he identified three
key factors. First; changes in relativity of state power and power differentials
therein, second; changes in nature of conflict and concept of 4th Generation
war and third; uncertainty in state response diluting doctrines, concepts and
strategies.
In his speech NSA, taking further
lead from concept of 4th generation war, focused on terrorism as a
main threat to peace and spoke about prevailing disorganized global response to
it. He further highlighted a need to have UN convention on terrorism and Indian
efforts to reach on a consensus. He then took a snapshot on Pakistan for having
not agreed on the definition of terrorism and killing of Osama bin laden in
Pakistan. NSA laid importance on the role of USA and lauded their contribution.
NSA though expressed his general concern on the conflict situation in West Asia
but did not elaborate its impact in the region especially so on Indian
interests till he was questioned in question answer session.
Mr Ajit Doval also highlighted importance
of cyber, maritime and space security and then identified four key approaches
or solutions to bring a stable peaceful situation. These four key approaches or
solutions being first; strengthening the
democracy, second; empowerment of people by bringing development, third
developing good neighborhood relations and fourth technical integration like
Indian digitations program for good governance.
In last he switched over to a military
message by highlighting Indian stand of an effective and credible deterrence as
an instrument to achieve stability and prevent conflicts.
Mr Ajit Doval at last took three
questions concerning, first on Pakistan’s stand on freedom fighter versus
terrorists stand, second Indian policy towards China in backdrop of solutions
of democracy and developing good relations with neighbors and third significance
of threat as posed by ISIS and Al Qaeda.
Critical Review
I went through the speech of Mr Ajit Doval as uploaded on
Munich Security Conference website and present my critical review herein as an independent
defense analyst.
Though Mr Ajit Doval delivered
his speech off the script with help of notes confidently with a set pace in a
vibrant tone but showed signs of restlessness wherein he shifted water glass
without reasons, tempered with position of mike making his speech inaudible,
made avoidable jerking and tilted actions of his head and laid avoidable extra
but frequent intervening emphasis in sentences which he spoke. Though some of
his actions may be attributed to his style but surely some did not convey a
good body language as expected from a National Security Advisor. I do not wish to get into in depth over issue of
body language except saying that such body languages are studied in detail by experts
to get deep into the minds of such important speaker. He has to further strengthen
the art of deception when he speaks.
If seen in the backdrop of
expectation of Munich Security Conference as given above, Mr Ajit Doval failed
to meet the same. He touched upon the subject in a hush hush manner even
missing out certain key subjects. He had a right opportunity and forum to
convey certain assuring messages to the worried world community of experts.
Somehow he missed the opportunity. Whether it was by design or he took the
opportunity lightly cannot be said with certainty. It could be that he avoided deliberately
making any in-depth comments to keep people guessing and confused which in fact
has become USP of Indian foreign and security policy.
Mr Doval laid the pace of his
speech on certain accepted and un-debatable security challenges facing the
world but lost direction when he focused on 4th Generation war as
his accepted concept and went to extent of making prevailing military or
security doctrines, concepts and strategies redundant in light of such war. Concept
of 4th generation war was presented by Mr William S Lind, Colonel Keith,
Captain Jhon, Colonel Joseph and Lt Col Gary in their article “Changing Face of
War into Fourth Generation’ published in 1989 in Marine Corp Gazette. It was
further explained by Colonel Thomas in his book “The Sling and The Stone” in
2006.
The concept of 4th
generation war as only possible war has not been validated and accepted by any
military including Indian army as it addresses a very narrow span/band of
entire spectrum of war or conflict. Indian army classifies 4th
Generation war as low intensity conflict but it doesn’t mean that possibility of
high intensity or mid intensity wars/ conflicts can be totally ruled out. Doctrine,
concepts and strategies of other wars still remain relevant. Why did Mr Ajit
Doval emphasized only on 4th generation war or low intensity conflict
making other doctrine, concepts and strategies redundant is beyond
comprehension. I fail to understand that man of his stature will have no in-depth
understanding of entire spectrum of conflict then why did he allow his police
intelligence mind to dominate military thoughts?
Issue of non state actors as dominant
and potent security threat is not the way Mr Doval has placed it in his speech.
In fact behind every non state powerful group there is a recognized state
sponsoring it? In military terms non state groups in fact are
advance guard to the interest of state sponsoring it. They are created and
sponsored by state with certain politico military objectives in mind as low
cost option of proxy wars. US military in fact has a known policy of sponsoring
such non state actors if it meets US interests. Same is the case with many other states like
Russia, Pakistan etc including India. It is an accepted military practice to
further national interests if possible by low cost option of proxy wars.
Problem only arises when such groups in some cases become rogues and fail to
deliver what they are expected to by asserting their independence. Like in case
of Al Qaeda, LTTE or even Bhinderwale. Yes
I do understand the compulsion of Mr Ajit Doval to be diplomatic but totally
misrepresenting or ignoring fact is surely not in Indian interest. If India has
dropped the option of non state actors meeting national interests then it
should state so openly and demand same from others without naming them and in a
diplomatic manner. It will strengthen India’s standing among world community.
Mr Doval said that terrorism is a
tool in hands of vested interests and rightly so he emphasized it. I think Mr
Doval or India should be realistic on the issue of UN convention over it. It will
never materialize as it is not practical simply because terrorism is not only
the tool of non state actors but also that of military. Indian air force’s air
strike in Dhaka terrorized Gen Niazi in 1971 thereby forcing him to surrender early.
Terrorism as tool targets mind. As brought out above if non state actors are
sponsored by state actors then it will just not be possible for UN convention
on the subject specially so when the word security scenario is increasing
becoming fragile and volatile. In fact many of the powerful countries are
re-arming or replacing/ modernizing their old arsenals including nuclear and
new and new non state actors are getting sponsored as low cost option of proxy
wars. Unfortunately world and India has
to face it and it is just not possible to bring UN conventions for terror acts
or any other military act only by non state rogue groups? So why to waste time on it? Keep your options
open specially so when Indian army is asking govt about policy to bring formidable
or unbearable cost on the sponsors of non state actors in neighborhood as
response to their proxy wars.
Though Mr Doval talked about need
for a global response to terrorism but failed to define Indian commitment to it
except mentioning certain discussions in international forum. Just bringing UN convention will not eliminate
terrorism; it will require discernible actions on ground. What are Indian commitments,
NSA failed to clarify same though he talked about a collective global response.
Solution to security challenges which
Mr Doval talked about are way off then available security solutions per se.
Democracy is a political form of government. I really don’t know how and when
Indian govt has assumed that world over democracy has been accepted as an
established norm of governance. US which are a vibrant democracy does not
support or promote democracy as the only option when it comes to promoting
their interests. If India thinks that true democracy in China or Pakistan will
bring solution to Kashmir or bring peace in region otherwise then I am sorry
the given thought process is wrong. Indian may have to wait for next 50 years
or so to get a settlement. India keeps cribbing about Pak army calling the
shots in foreign policy and maintains a distance. Well Indian diplomatic army cannot
and shall not treat Pak army as untouchable. That is not good diplomacy. Better
would be bringing your military at par with Pak military structurally and open
a new military diplomatic channel. Indian concerns should only be that
whosoever signs any agreement with India, shall bring all stake holders in
Pakistan on board and repeat of Shimla agreement shall not happen. So NSA
bringing democracy to settle political or military disputes is beyond comprehension.
Well it may be Indian point of view but world doesn’t behave like that. Just
too bad but India has to accept it.
Yes issues of democracy, developing
relations with neighborhood, development, empowerment, good governance and technical
integration will have preventive impact on internal insurgencies. India may
like to play a leading role in the region to bring peace and stability and she
should do so. It would have been better if Mr Ajit doval had spoken more on foreign
policy. India at one time had foreign policy of Panchsheel I think it is still
relevant today. May be it is time to crystallize it in some form and name it.
It will then become much easier for Indian diplomats to refer or mention it.
In the question answer session Mr
Ajit Dowal stated that ISIS or Al Qaeda presently do not pose threat to India and
as and when it happens India will take steps. Well that was a shocking answer.
These groups are posing danger to world peace and tranquilities and that is
beyond doubt. Indian NSA did not even consider them as a threat when the whole
world is crying? Well I leave it there as to none of defense expert who listened
to him will be convinced.
NSA did make a strong statement
of an effective and credible deterrence as an instrument for regional stability
but looks it was more targeted towards Pakistan.
In my view, Mr Ajit Doval NSA
should have made right use of Munich Security Conference 14, to convey Indian
stand on certain key security issues. The world is expecting India to make
certain commitments to global war against terrorism. Somehow Mr Ajit Doval missed this right
opportunity to make Indian stand clear. He did not even speak about subjects
like Ukraine, South China Sea, Nato withdrawal from Pakistan. After hearing his
speech I am left more confused about Indian security Policy then before. I
expect Indian govt to bring some clarity on Indian defense and security policy
and NSA has a big role in its framing.
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