Are There Any Indian Military Options Against Pakistan?

Pakistan for last 30 years is constantly bleeding India through her proxy war under the doctrine of death by 1000 cuts. Her intentions are clear to settle unfinished agenda of partition and capture Kashmir through military force. 

Every time Pakistan hits to bleed India, be it on attack on parliament or Mumbai or killing Indian soldiers or fueling unrest in Kashmir, the matter is debated in Indian diplomatic think tanks and closed saying that there are no military option available and India must pursue the matter diplomatically with other world powers to put pressure on Pakistan. 

Against the Pakistani doctrine of 1000 cuts, Indians are adopting the doctrine of exhaustion in a hope that one day Pakistan and Kashmiris will to resist will die down, so India must hold on the disturbed area with huge deployment of forces by total area domination. Such doctrine not only creates massive hardship to local civilian population but also keeps Indian Military under constant pressure. For sometimes it looked that situation has returned to the normalcy, elections were held with popular mandate and govts started functioning, but again Pakistan is able to fuel unrest bringing Indian govt and military on toes.

Though now relations are under stress but Pakistan is still a US ally and a possibility of US using Pakistan to keep India under pressure to bring her to US terms can not be ruled out. The given possibility, makes the situation more complex further suggesting no room for military operations.  But is the situation so hopeless? Even if we take that US will not allow any Indian open declaration of war against Pakistan? Let us not forget during Kargil war, US had its say. What shall India do? Shall it continue getting beating like this? Politicians and Diplomats have developed a defeated mindsets? 

It is known fact that when the political diplomacy faces a wall, the military diplomacy must break open a door? But some how this established principle is not even considered? May be diplomats do not want to give an impression of defeat and also they do not want Military to  move into their turf. But shall India be allowed to suffer like this when no one consults the military and others have given up hoping some day things will be fine? 

Let us consider what could be the available military  option but before that there are some hard and bitter realities that shall be kept in mind

1. Pakistan is a nuclear state and also has tactical nukes with an open policy to use it against military targets. Which she can justify to the world specially so if it is used against advancing military forces within Pakistani territory? 

2. Indian military itself is structured on WW II model and lacks required capabilities to deliver  crushing  punch. It is a defensive force with limited offensive capabilities. It looks, Indian military also lacks capabilities to conduct mobile warfare at the scale which are required to be conducted to win a nuke war.

3. Indian political leadership is more driven by economic interests of crony capitalists who do not want war or conflicts to grow to a scale to threat their money interests. 

4. For economically growing country like India, It doesn't make sense to derail it by a conventional war?

5. World may not give that required space to India and Pakistan to fight.

6. China may not be neutral as it was in case of Indo Pak war in 65 or 71 and may move some troops to border not for war but to fix Indian military in other front thus putting stress on Indian reserves. 

Pakistan knows all above facts well is taking full advantage to deliver 1000 cuts to India. But even then there are plenty of options if political leadership has a will and diplomats dont play their dirty games. These are:

1. Pay Pakistan in same coin. Stage a proxy war. Indian economy is strong and surely can  sustain much larger operation against Pakistan. Keep the tempo low to just force Pakistan to retreat from Kashmir. or

2. Once for all decide to divide Pakistan by creating few fatal and poisonous wounds exploiting numerous existing fault lines to force her to crumble in her own weight. A doctrine of few fatal wounds against 1000 cuts. 

3. Buy. Pakistani leadership is corrupt. Their military leaders make huge money. Use money power to buy them. There are plenty of ways of doing it.

4. India must go for assassination of terrorists leaders. One strike here in India two leaders are assassinated in Pakistan. I am sure RAW is capable if not give this task to Military Intelligence. 

5. Pakistan's nukes are under close surveillance of USA.  US naturally has plans to neutralize these if there are risks of these falling in terrorists hands. There could be some options there too.

6. Bring Pakistan in arms race. USA created a situation by arms race where in Soviet Union collapsed. India must focus on creating at least eight more armed divisions, build air force, have more attack hepters, Arty SP and submarines. Create a capacity to move armed divisions at least 250 to 300 Km in 4-5 days and It is possible. Restructure your forces. Withdraw army from CI grid by creating special CI force. Rather than building a strong Navy for USA, India must build offensive capacity of her military, close air support capabilities of Air Force and amphibious strike capabilities of navy. Increase Indigenous productions. It will work like magic. 

7 India must make it clear to USA no partnership unless Pakistan is controlled and they can do it.

And there are some more which I shall not discuss here.

Options like cross border raids or air strikes on terrorists camps will have no impact as the same will not only be absorbed but will be retaliated. 

India till now was living in shadow of poverty tugged under safety of Himalayas and Indian ocean and world actually did not bother much about her. Present defensive policy served her well. In last thirty years Indian economy has shown some promise, though a poor country with widening gaps, but still has managed to grow a market of a trillion dollar economy. Clubbed with huge size of market, rise of China has increased geo political importance of India tremendously. Indian ocean is heating up and so the importance of India. In given situation a passive defense policy will not work. 

Indian dream of emerging as a soft nation, protected by credible nuke umbrella with a weak and defensive military and dominating police will not succeed unless India becomes part of a military alliance. But in that case too military alliance will also demand modernization of forces. Indian peace time soldiers shall realize that nukes in itself do not give protection unless used as add on to a military power. In fact going nuclear demands modern and potent military forces as essential. The policy of soft power if followed beyond a point is highly dangerous to the Indian security.

As the economic sphere of a nation grows, it brings her into conflict with other competing economies and beyond a point such competition sometimes turns into hostilities. Strong military in fact is a essential un-avoidable enabler. For economic prosperity, the path goes through few armed conflicts. The cost of such conflicts shall thus become part of the plans for economic growth. No nation can become prosperous with out a strong military and few wars. A strong military protects peace and ensures economic growth by deterring wars. 

There is myth which prevails among most of the Indian diplomats that there will be no wars? They are arguing so ignoring the fact that most of the powerful nations are preparing for wars in crowded regions of Asia. India has no choice except to have a powerful military, which is structured around capabilities rather then just numbers. 

Prepare or Parish there is no choice. Growing India needs a strong military to protect her path of growth. Grow your military to a point where there is no choice for Pakistan but to come to terms for peace and growth of South Asia. Pakistan right now is showing tendencies of a suicide  bomber and has become source of terror to whole world. Such indoctrinated  mindsets do not understand reasoning, their wisdom gets blurred and decision making disoriented. It is unfortunate though but Pakistan is not leaving any choice for India.  

      

India-US Partying Again; Military Logistics Pact and Geo Politics in South Asia and Asia Pacific Region

India and US have signed a Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA) which was first mooted by USA almost 20 years back. In early this year, US designated India as major defense partner. India and USA have also been working on advance technology trade initiative. 

LEMOA is a substantial enabling pact which will take call on major logistics support needs of both the country on case to case basis. US and India are also discussing on signing of Communication and Information Security Memorandum of Agreement (CISMOA) and the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA). Unless these two pending agreements are signed it looks, US will still not able to comply with domestic laws to transfer key technology to India in spite of India being designated as major defense partner. 

Indian insistence to create a structure of neutrality in the agreement has been a major reason of delay in signing of these pacts. India at no step, wants to give an impression of this agreement pitching her against any country like Russia or China. India also wants to retain freedom to sign similar agreements with any other power. 

Geo political dynamic in region are very complex. Is India making a right choice? 

The signing of agreement is surely a drift in Indian defense policy. India till 62 war with China, was an undeclared US ally.  62 war ended with Nehru breaking his party with US in a very mysterious way and asked US Generals to vacate south block.  Nehru took assistance of Russia and reached unsigned agreement with China wherein China unilaterally declared ceasefire and withdrew her forces back. Dalai Lama who had escaped to India from Tibet, on assurance of India and USA liberating Tibet, was deserted in between. Nehru betrayed Tibetan cause and since then Dalai Lama is stuck in India as refugee. 

Nehru took India closer to Soviet Union which annoyed USA. USA did try taking revenge, when their war gamed attack plans were used by Pakistan to attack India in 1965 war. USA provided much superior weapon system to Pakistan.  In war, Pakistan did caught India on wrong footing. Indian army was then inferior in technology and weapons system than Pakistan.  Thanks to valour of Indian military leadership and soldiers who fought much superior enemy stalling their attacks. Pakistan military leadership failed to press attacks. India after holding the Pakistani attacks launched counter attacks. Pakistan was low on ammunition holding ( a fact which India was not aware) and superpowers intervened  forcing both parties to end war in a draw with some military advantages to India. In talks Shashrti threw away partial victory and signed Tashkand agreement.

Indra realizing a gap in Indian protective shield and at cross roads, signed a Friendship Treaty with Soviet Union having a security cooperation clause in it.  The treaty provided India a much required defensive protection which was used by India in 71 war against Pakistan to prevent USA and her allies to influence outcome of war. The brilliant military leadership under FM Sam Manekshaw gave a historic unprecedented military victory over Pakistan  giving birth to Bangladesh.  The military victory was thrown away by Indra when she signed Shimla Agreement. India lost best opportunity to settle dispute over Kahmir forever. Indra helped Bhutto to let him win elections in Pakistan on promise that he will return the favour when Indra goes for elections back in India. 

Till actually 90s, Pakistan had influence over minority votes in India due to common relationship and cross border marriages and Congress could never annoy this huge vote bank. This peculiar situation was one of the reason of Shastri and Indra throwing away military gains in dustbins. Muslim minority votes were key to place Congress in power than promoting national interests. It was only after 1990s that young Indian Muslims started  dissociating themselves from Pakistan and connecting more with their Indian identity. Indian Muslim girls started refusing marrying Pakistanis. This shift in minority stand followed by dalits deserting Congress has been the real reason of down fall of congress in Indian politics.  

In all these years, USA helped Pakistan keeping Kashmir dispute alive and pot boiling with violence basically to use it to pressure India. USA ignored Pakistan arming Afghans and Punjabi jehadis with US arms and sending them to Kashmir to create violence. USA also ignored or indirectly assisted Pakistan arming herself with nuclear weapons and missiles much before India. US military presence in Pakistani bases provided her collateral security and prevented Indian army attacking her during "OP PARAKRAM" and Kargil war. Possibility of US assistance and protections umbrella being used by Pakistan during Kargil war can not be ruled out.  

Rise of China and tremendous increase in her capabilities to project military power globally has changed Geo political dynamics in Asia Pacific region. Return of Russia as a much more modern military power armed with modern sophisticated weapon systems has made Geo political situation for US global military power  more complex. USA lacks military capabilities to win three regional theater wars and is in urgent need of regional partners and allies and India provides her the best choice in Indian Ocean and far east. 

Pakistan; legally an ally of USA, having sensed  US desperation is keeping her options open and has shown more inclination towards China to prevent USA coming closer to India and also using this opportunity as hard bargain tool. USA has been trying to create a balancing act and helping both countries to resolve Kashmir through dialogue. Pakistan also finds it as an ideal opportunity to play her aggressive military actions supported diplomacy to force India to come to her terms. No wonder Kashmir is boiling.  deteriorating situation in Kashmir also gives an opportunity to USA to ask India to sign proposed agreements to pull out India into her block against rising China and Russia. 

Some experts are talking of a possibility of emergence of China Pak Axis. Seeing Pakistan's too overconfident behavior brandishing nukes on every opportunity, the same can not be ruled out.  Pakistan is now directly connected with China through Karakoram Highway. Pakistan moving to Chinese block with India drifting to US will create a serious military situation for India. Indian military power in present shape is not capable to fight and win two front wars with China and Pakistan together. Emergence of doctrine of hybrid wars have provided space for military conflicts below threshold levels of nuke wars. It provides a space for these two countries together to attack India. Such military conflicts if fueled can attack Indian heartlands directly creating a crisis for Indian existence. 

Pakistan also carries a risk of her own disintegration with more visible internal faultiness becoming which could be turned violent easily.  If Pak presents Baluchistan to China surely enough first strong reaction will come from USA. India and USA together can work to thwart Chinese inroad in South Asia. Will Pakistan risk that?

India lacks strong defense industrial base, her defense R&D is weak. Economy is exposed to crony capitalist interferences and business interests are more aligned with USA. Coup phobia among corrupt and greedy politicians makes them see Indian military as threat which they want to keep weak. Bureaucracy is also corrupt and self serving and least bothered about services to people. Judiciary is not only corrupt but takes decades to dispose off cases. GDP growth projected as impressive if adjusted against inflation and population growth is actually in negative. Certain caste lobbies in minority, control political power and more then 90% of national cash flows. These minorities controlling governance, since Independence have been talking about India emerging as soft power. Much required militarization is seen as a threat by this soft power promoting ruling lobby as bulk of fighting soldiers in Indian military come from rural areas from certain opposite castes combinations. 

India like after 1962 and 65 wars, when Indra had to sign friendship treaty with Soviet Russia, is again at the cross roads. Military capabilities can not be built overnight and take at least 2o to 25 years. Lobbies controlling power and money doesn't want  militarization which will make certain isolated opposing castes more powerful. China is posing threat with a much strong power and modern technology and not willing to adjust on border dispute unless certain tracts like Tawang are given back to her. No Indian politician has vision or guts to make adjustments on borders to settle much needed dispute. Naturally they are now running towards USA for a protective shield. 

Clouds of WW III in hybrid form are looming. All major powers are desperate to create favorable power balance. Indian promise of neutrality as being harped now, will not stand to pressure as Indian economy is exposed and more aligned to USA and if US becomes major technology partner  in defense naturally it leaves no space except aligning with USA. In any case Indian global positioning in geographical terms connects it more to the Geo Politics in Indian ocean region which is dominated by US navies. In present situation when there is no hope of resolving disputes with China,  it makes more sense for India to align with USA.  

But is it so easy? Geo Political dynamics as explained above, makes Pakistan more influential than India. Pakistan is in better position to tilt power balance either in favour of China or USA in the region. Naturally she is bargaining hard and dictating terms. Politics in middle east specially stand of Saudi Arabia and Turkey has more influence on Pakistan than USA. China and Russia have been trying hard to convince them to opt for strategy shift. Situation in Syria has made things more complex. Though at one point of time it appeared that Saudi and Turkey may think of moving out of US influence but their geographical locations and distance from China makes them more dependent on Europe and USA and that possibility is ruled out. With Saudi and Turkey not able to break cords with USA will it be possible for Pakistan to drift away from USA? Looks NO? 

However, if Russia pitches to provide energy security to Pakistan, it surely gives her an option to associate with China. But Pakistani integration with Middle East and USA is so strong that it will surely be not an easy option for her. With US military influence in Afghanistan and Pakistan having visible and strong internal fault lines, it becomes more difficult for her to do so. 

Pakistan in present situation will surely try to bargain hard on Kashmir and that what they are doing right now.   

Indian choices are limited and it appears no political leader will be able to make decisions on these for next 25 years. Kashmir will be kept alive by her stake holders. China will not settle lesser than taking Tawang. Status quo will remain.   

How the Geo political situations unfold, only time will tell but one thing is sure. Minority ruling lobby of this country will keep India militarily weak and in time of crisis will opt for a super power providing her security. In 71 war it was Soviet Russia and now it is USA. A country having hundreds of years of history of slavery is still deep in coma. Corruption and greed for political power among minority ruling lobby playing dirty power politics of division, hate, fear and ignorance have made them weak, cowards and infested with coup phobia and they will surely try to outsource national security to a third party. Will Indian trillion dollar economy be able to survive impending clouds of WW III is the moot question? 

Why is India not considering best option of becoming active member of British Commonwealth is also surprising? In fact umbrella of British Commonwealth is the right choice in present situation. It provides India more options and will absorb US aggression in better way.

India has no choice except to build her defense R&D , defense industrial base and her military. Nukes gives fall sense of security and with weak military exposes the nation to global pressures. A trillion dollar economy can surly not survive without a strong military power.  Soft power under umbrella of a third party security will keep India weak and vulnerable for ever. India can not be compared with Japan under the protection umbrella of USA and she has a very strong economy and retains the capacities to build her forces in a short time. Japan maintains a strong defense R&D and industrial base. The strategy of developing India as soft power and as promoted by minority caste based lobby which controls political power in India, will fall flat in hours of crisis risking disintegration of the country.

India has no choice but to build a strong military power. let good sense prevail. 

Myth & Reality; There will be No wars in South Asia as Nuke Parity Exist

Nukes do deter wars as part of military power of any nation specially so if parity or near parity exists between adversaries but saying that there will be no war is also not correct. Since the time when Russia and USA went nuclear, chances of industrial war at the scale of WW II have surely diminished as nukes and emerging advanced technologies changed the wars strategies. In spite of nukes, wars have not stopped but its shape has changed. 

In spite of being nuclear power, Soviet Russia faced withdrawal in Afghanistan against US backed forces and disintegrated. In spite of nukes, frequency of short limited wars have gone up where in more civilians are being killed. In spite of nukes, revived Russia and USA are fighting their wars in Syria. In fact, wars in Iraq were also triggered due to Russia and EU encouraging Saddam to dump dollar and accept other currencies for oil trade.  In spite of nukes, more and more hot spots like South China sea are heating up.In spite of Nukes, Russia has split Ukraine. In spite of nukes, most powerful nations have increased their defense spending and preparing for WW III now. . 

Arrival of robotized  weapon systems integrated with artificial intelligence assisted war management, has increased more chances of war. The shape of WW III will not be the same as WWII. The shape of WW II was not same as WWI.  Military war doctrines and strategies do changes with time and advent of technologies make tremendous impact. As long humans are infested with greed, wars will remain. The WW III will surely not be fought purely for defending territorial empires but economic one and accordingly war doctrine of hybrid wars has emerged. 

Since Independence, Indian military has never been equipped to fight wars at the scale of WW II. Indian military is a pure defensive force designed to fight short wars focusing more on territorial defense than destruction of enemy forces. The strategy itself cuts the potential of military power by almost 70%. Nukes in South Asia, have also not deterred wars. Just after India and Pak arming themselves with nukes, Kargil war happened which lasted for almost 3 months.

In following situations, in spite of India having nukes, in next 25 years the war can not be avoided:

1. Pak China join hands and convert red insurgency within India into a serious military threat in Indian heartland of UP and Bihar or

2.  Pak China join hands to capture Kashmir with Leh going to China and valley to Pakistan. Or

3. Indian and Chinese navies fight battles in Indian ocean for its dominance. Or

4.  Pak disintegrates and India launches military campaign with USA to save nukes falling in hands with Islamic Jehadis. Or some Islamic Jehadi take Pak nuke in control and fires it on India. Or

5.  India fights wars in middle east or in Afghanistan or in South China Sea to protect national interests. Or

6.  Already simmering tension as prelude to WW III forces India to take sides.

and some more.

In fact in the emerging scenarios, Indian military needs more modernization and be ready to fight wars not only beyond borders but within borders too. The threat is real specially so when Indian economy has made arrival globally. Modern wars will be fought not only to capture territories but attack economic frontiers and its core. The force structuring of Indian military and present strategy is totally outdated and needs doctrinal shift as early as possible. The shagging moral of Indian military soldiers due to humiliating treatments by 7th Pay Commission, is also sending wrong signals to India's potential enemies. No wonder in Kashmir, Pak has increased her attacks and India is on defensive. 

  

Pakistan Selling Terror to Terrorized World. 22 Pak Members Of Parliament Being Send as Envoys on Kashmir

Nawaz Sharif Govt has announced sending 22 selected members of parliament to various part of the world to draw global attention to the alleged atrocities in the Kashmir and so called home grown freedom struggle. 

Pakistan is trying hard to convince the world that:

1. Violence in form of stone pelting on Security Forces in Kashmir Valley are not terror acts but home grown mass freedom struggle.

2. Pakistan is forced to support these so called freedom fighters politically and morally in light of Kashmir dispute as unfinished agenda of Indian partition and also UN resolution.

3. Indian allegations of Pakistan supplying arms and sending across terrorists are false and baseless.

Pakistan believes that their diplomatic blitzkrieg undertaken globally will help her create a favorable global opinion on Kashmir and force India to come on negotiation tables in spite of she fueling proxy war in valley. It will help Pakistan to talk with India from position of strength and get a solution what she wants.

Indian stand is that, talks on Kashmir are meaningless as long as terror activities and proxy war in Kashmir are being sponsored by Pakistan. Peace is a precondition for any meaningful talks.

Proxy war in Kashmir being fueled by Pakistan and only 5% of Sunni Muslims with Radicalized Jehadi mindsets supporting her is a known fact to the whole world. Pakistan is sponsoring these radicalized mindsets to brew trouble in India. 

World peace today faces a real threat from Radicalized Islamic Jehadi barbaric violence. Will the terrorized world accept Pakistani argument of home grown freedom struggle when the role of such Jehadi mindsets in Kashmir violence is a well known? Certainly Not.

Pakistani Prime Minister Navaz Sahrif knows the above fact well but he is still creating a deceptive illusion for fooling the people of Pakistan. Sharif is loosing the grip on his votes in Pak Punjab and is likely to face a defeat in next elections. In last elections, he won with support of internationally banned terror organisations like Lashkar-E-Toiba. Pakistani education system inserts the hate India psychology among poor youths which acts as nursery to terror organisations like Lashkar or Taliban and even ISIS (as also alleged by Afghanistan). No Pakistani politician who wins elections based on his support in Pak Punjab, can ignore this nursery of terror. Naturally it is compulsive on Nawaz to keep this terror mind set satisfied by creating such lies and deceptive violent smoke screens as Pak is creating now on Kashmir.

22 Members of Parliament will surely enjoy world tour on public money and also help Nawaz to keep Kashmir pot boiling till his next elections. Boiling Kashmir pot also helps BJP in India, to impress their voters under their plans to incite emotions of nationalism and threat of Islam. 

With the present pattern of activities, it looks that Kashmir pot will be kept boiling for some time now as it is a win win situation for BJP and Nawaz Sharif both. Whereas people will keep suffering and solider will be tired being on guard 24*7.

Part of Kashmir Valley is Boiling. What is Pak Game Plan? Why is India so Defensive?

Some districts of Kashmir Valley are under curfew for last 50 days due to street protests and violence. More than 60 people have died and more than 2000 injured.

A new pattern of violence is emerging, wherein mostly teenage boys are being used  for pelting stones by suspected Pakistani agents and criminals as shield to their designs for some larger games. Surprisingly even after 50 days, the street violence is not stopping in spite of heavy deployment of police forces and curfew. To avoid heavy causalities police forces are using pallet guns and taking a beating from the crowd. More police force personals have been injured than the rioters. Ground reports suggest demoralized police forces leaving posts at some places forcing central govt to rush BSF. Intense signs of worries are visible on faces of Home Minister and CM of the state. Army has been removed from the eyes of the public wherever possible. Army with RR has increased their anti terror operations along LOC and also in suspected areas resulting in killing of many terrorists. Certain restriction on internet has been imposed. Known separatists leaders living in state protection enjoying state perks are still active on social media inciting violence. 

Today CM Mehbooba made a desperate appeal to trouble creators to give her a chance. Similar weak and desperate calls are coming from Home Minister: Raj Nath Singh. Initially he declined to go to valley to meet people, now he is planning a second visit. PM is firm and talking tough including giving calls for world to take note of human rights violations in Baluchistan and also calling Pakistan to vacate POK but even in this talk some traces of defensive tone can be noted. Defense Minister is silent except making a childish comment of Pak being a hell. Army Chief probably has no clearance from govt to speak. Northern Command GOC made an appeal for calm and all parties to step back for peace and talks. 

Involvement of Pakistan needs no debate and same is so predominantly visible. Pak has stepped up her attempts to take the matter to international forums. UN has declined to intervene calling both countries to resolve the issue amicably. USA has again called both parties to talk and resolve the disputes by talks. Russia is silent and is likely to back India. Some murmur from China can be heard but she is yet to come openly in support of Pakistan. Afghanistan is backing India and Iran is silent. OIC made a usual statement with diplomates from Arab countries later calling India in confidential telling not to worry (it has been a practice by Arab Countries for last 3-4 decades). 

Overall India standing on defensive foot is clearly visible. Policy confusions and knees jerk actions on part of Govt are visible. Pakistan is making calls for India to come for talks on Kashmir dispute whereas India has responded to talk on issue of terror. 

The way events have unfolded in valley, it looks to be under well planned strategy by Pakistan. Trouble is sustaining itself indicating well planned strategy. As per Indian govt report more than Rs 80 crores have been sent by Pakistan to separatists leaders in Kashmir. 

Indian intelligence has once again proved to be a failure wherein they failed to read the Pakistani plans and also could not stop funding. Though Indian Army was well prepared for operations and actually their success rates have gone up but troops are puzzled with the meek response from the govt. 

No unusual buildup of troops or usual firing on LOC is reported except once. There is a mysterious silence in military activities creating more alert and caution in experienced minds. 

Separatist leaders have given call for people to march tomorrow to local army formation HQ in Srinagar and ask army to vacate valley. The situation seems to be tense but under control. A large portion of the population is not supporting the violent path. People are suffering and business has stopped. Most want some way out to emerge. The violence lacks mass and momentum. Heavy deployment of troops is more than enough to manage any contingency. 5% people fermenting trouble in small region surely can not make a serious dent. 

Behavior and conduct of Indian media and many opposition leaders almost talking in favor of violence mongers is something not palatable.  

In the given situation surely enough, few questions do emerge. 

1. Why did intelligence failed to read the trouble brewing specially when it was clear that state govt was releasing certain separatist leaders known to be close to Pakistan and who were arrested on charges of inciting children to pelt stones on the troops earlier? State govt had recently released few hundred children who were in jail on stone pelting charges and arrested a year before. 

2. How could Pakistan fund the separatist leaders in Kashmir avoiding detection from Indian intelligence agencies?

3. Why is there so much confusion in Govt policy makers? Initially they decided  not to talk with leaders in Kashmir and now they are rushing for talks. 

4. Why very weak and meek statements and gestures are coming from Govt suggesting India being on defensive? 

5. Why has govt failed to take all political parties on board creating a situation wherein these parties have chosen to make certain unpalatable statements contradicting the national interests?

6 Why has media been not issued advisory for not crossing certain lines and harming national interests? 

7. Why has such policy been accepted where in police force like CRPF has been forced to accept beating affecting their moral? More CRPF personals have been injured than the rioters.

8. Why are there no alternative plans like occupying houses and their roof tops dominating streets or using some other methods? There are enough such options?

It is puzzling, that on one side violence doesn't allow normal life to return on other side govt is taking no tough stand against separatist leaders and arresting those who are organizing and using children for pelting stones  on the security forces. Separatists leaders like Geelani continue to enjoy fruits of state protections and perks including pensions. No attempts have been made to choke funding of separatists through hawala in spite of army harping on it for last three decades. Even at one point of time USA also cautioned India to control the funding through hawala.

In geo political and military sense, present trouble makes no major difference except creating a ripple in form of some heightened activities which Indian forces are quite capable to manage. In diplomatic circles too the trouble doesn't change the shape and structure of the dispute and agreements. It also doesn't change the stands of the parties involved. The trouble also doesn't give any advantage to Pakistan except she making some noises in international forums with no impact. 

Then what is the game plan of the Pakistan?   Why is Indian response so confused and not firm? 

It is not an unknown phenomenon in politics of South Asia where in trouble like this are triggered to create political advantage by the parties in power.  Shimla agreement was signed by Indra throwing away the advantage of military victory and national interests to win elections. Indra also bailed out Bhutto by signing this agreement and helped him win elections in Pakistan. Such violence help politicians in polarizing people to create advantage of votes. Key elections in Punjab and UP are due. Nawaz Sharif in Pakistan was also  losing political grip.  Such issues like Kashmir are also kept alive by politicians by creating trouble like present one to create political power balance in their favor. BJP can use this issue to incite passions of nationalism and create polarization for votes. Similarly Nawaz Shairf in Pakistan has been successful in regaining his loosening political control. Past events suggest Cong having Pakistan connection probably with PPP. It appears BJP has created a Pakistani connect with PML - N wherein with this trouble in Kashmir both parties reap political benefits in their respective counties.

Politicians of South Asia play dirty politics whereas people suffer. Soldiers get killed or injured. Economic growth of  the country gets affected. The present trouble in Kashmir makes no geo political or military sense unless their are some larger plans which may unfold in time and if not then surely enough these are dirty ploys of politicians in power in both the countries.

Let good sense prevail and peace return. 

  

Indian Farmers; Certain Myths and Facts - Destruction of Indian Rural Economy

Generally people not connected with farming have certain myths about Indian farmers, This log tries to dispel same:-

Myth No 1. Farmers pay no Tax?

Fact No 1. False. All farmers pay tax in form of annual land revenue tax to state govt. Some states gives relief to small farmers. When farmers sell their products in Mandis, they pay mandi tax.

Myth No 2. Farmers pay no income tax?

Fact No 2. If parameters of business are applied then actually farmers have no income. It is actually in negative.  Just consider following facts

1. All farming lands are owned by state. Farmers only have tilling rights in form of a patta. Farmers tilt land to grow food for the sate to create food security which is so important for national survival.

2.  Rates of the farming products are fixed by govt under a unfavorable formula which is only followed in India. Farmers have no say in same.

3. Farmers are required to sell their products in fixed mandis which helps govts to control the movement of their products.

4. While fixing the price price of products, farmers labors and labor as hired is not taken as cost. In fact most of the farmers earn less then minimum wages of laborer.

If seen in light of above facts, govt has no ground to impose income tax on farmers as in real terms as applied in business there is no income? Govts are shamelessly hiding this fact and taking the credit of not imposing income tax.

Myth No 3. Some farmers are big landlords?

Fact No 3. There are no big landlords as is the impression. Average land holding of farmers is less than 1 acres and in same land they earn far lesser than a Govt peon. Most of the sates have land ceiling acts and they cant hold land beyond a limit. Like in UP max land holding limit is 15 acres. Not even .5% farmers hold such land and even in this land holding farmers income in best of the irrigated land is lesser than a Govt supervisor. Please note that no such land ceiling applies on land holding on businessman.

Myth No 4. Farming is a profitable business? 

Fact No 4. As explained above farming is a business of loss. Most of the farmers earn lesser than laborers. In fact farmers earn far lesser than the min interest value of market price of their land.

Myth No 5. Govt pays good price for the products of the farmers?

Fact No 5. False. Actually govt is exploiting farmers as bonded laborers. Price fixing formula of the govt doesn't give desired consideration to factors like, labor cost, inflation, market price fluctuations, drought etc. It is actually a cost minus model which is solely driven by negative market price swings of the international market and govt's wish to pay.  The advantage of positive market swings are never passed on to the farmers. In addition not all products of the farmers are covered under assured minimum pricing of the govt. In these products middleman make huge profits. Farmers have no control on the supply chains of the their products which are actually controlled by the businessmen.

Myth No 6. Govt pays huge subsidies to farming sector. 

Fact no 6. The share of farming subsidies are only 20% of the total subsidies bill of govt of India. If bad debt of industries is added into this, than share of relief provided to farmers dips to less than 5%. Please note that almost 40% people in India depend on farming. In fact subsidies in PDS actually harm farmers as a bulk of such cheap products come back in market through black channels bringing down the market price. Even controlled bank loans given to farmers have high interest rates though  lower than the commercial loans.

Myth No 7. Govt is very sensitive to farmers need?

Fact No 7. False.

Govt after govts are ignoring farmers forcing them to commit suicide. It has a strong caste dimension.

Political power in India has been in hands of those castes which traditionally come from non farming sectors. Due to caste based structure of Indian society, mostly martial castes (from all sections including, muslims, some brahman castes and tribal) hold land. Rural dalit workers were depended on farmers. It was a well integrated rural economy. Earlier kings did not pay salaries to soldiers instead they gave them land to survive. Soldiers came from such farming families. Military leaders came from Zamindar and small princely states. After independence, political power was passed on to the non martial composition of castes by British deliberately to keep India weak.

Cong remained in power on Brahmin+Musim+Dalit votes and saw martial castes as threat. Congress promoted the concept of soft state and under garb of socialism, worked to marginalize farmers and soldiers. Princely states were abolished, their privy purses were abolished in 71 ( taking advantage of victory of 71 war), Zamindai abolished, land ceiling act brought in to snatch farmers land and make them economically weak, price control regime unfavorable to farmers put in place to makes these castes helpless, mandi laws put in place to tightly control supply chains, farmers land was made non bankable unlike business land holdings, soldiers salaries and pensions were reduced drastically bringing down cash supplies to rural market further,

All these actions were taken to basically punish these martial castes and make them politically, socially and economical weak. Dalits were separated out from a well integrated eco system by offering them reservation to the extent of giving them reservation in political structure of the country. This measure brought little change in eco condition of the rural dalits but created new sect of dalit ruling families. BJP like cong also promotes the concept the soft power. That means there is no place for farmers and soldiers in their schemes. Majority of Dalits also suffer as rural economy is starved of cash flows. Though India suffered and is suffering but  caste based vote bank political games are converting farmers and soldiers into laborers. Instead of developing India, 60% of the Indian population is being pushed in backwardness.

In fact in most of the developing and developed democracies farmers are seen as a tool to provide food security to the nation. Govts therefore place an arrangement to ensure farmers get more than minimum wages  in cost plus profit plus grants model. Govt takes extra care to anticipate international market swings and accordingly advice farmers to increase or decrease products to keep a control over pricing.

Where as in India farmers and soldier suffer due to pure caste based politics to keep castes holding bulk of land, out of political power and also to make them economically weak and socially isolated. Concept of soft power which is yet to be validated is being promoted  at cost of destroying rural economy. No wonder farmers are committing suicide and soldiers are agitating for respectable salaries.

What if President Overrules Orders of PM to Use Nuclear Weapons? Whose Orders Shall Indian Military Follow?

There has been serious ambiguities left in Indian Constitution in relation to management of defence of India. Unlike written constitution of sovereign nations, Indian constitution is silent on political management of defense. India today is a nuclear power. What if President as supreme commander of defense forces overrules PM over orders of firing of nuclear weapons by Military? Whom shall military obey? This is a doubt which exists in many military minds and needs clarification.

To further understand above let us see what does constitution says on management of defence?

Our constitution was actually designed for a dominion nation with No well defined  military responsibilities. It was drafted by British and copied with suitable amendments when India gained freedom.

What was the arrangement during British period just before freedom?

1. Indian military and defense of India was controlled by British Govt in London.

2. Viceroy India only dealt with internal security of India related to law and order and had no jurisdiction over defense of India.

3. Cdr in Chief Indian Army was solely responsible for execution of military strategy as approved by British Govt in London. On military strategy, Cdr in Chief was not required to consult viceroy but only keep him in information loop if required.

4. However to cut the British cost of defense, Indian military was attached to Central Govt of India for administration. All cost of salaries, equipment and administration of military in India  was borne by Indian budget.

5. Ministry of defense was structured only to provide administrative support to military.

While status of dominion of India under commonwealth was being structured not much change in administrative arrangement for defence of India was envisaged.  Though Governor General of India became responsible for immediate border defence of India, however Indian military was expected to evolve a strategy coordinating it with military strategy of Commonwealth.  Structure of Defence Ministry was not tempered and Indian military remained attached with Central Govt of India only for administration respecting independence of military power.


Constitution of free India surprisingly didn't  change the basic arrangement of higher political management of defense. Let us see what does constitution say:

1. Indian military still remains attached with Central Govt of India respecting its independence from political structure of India as was the case during British Period.

2.  Basic structure and role of Defence Ministry remains same as it was during British period to provide administrative support to Indian military bearing its all cost.

3. Instead of Queen in British India or Governor General in Dominion of India, President becomes Cdr in Chief of the Defense Forces. Under article 53 (II) Executive Military Authority has been separated from Executive Political Authority. Under article 53 military power is not subordinate to civil political power. These are two separate hats over the head of president.

4. As per Oath, it becomes responsibility of president to defend India. That means supreme executive military authority is vested in President. PM doesn't take oath to defend constitution. Chief Justice takes oath to defend constitution but only for upholding rule of law.

5. Military Officers are given commission by President and their parchment letters are signed by a military officer under a warrant from President.

6. All higher commander are given certain military powers under authority of warrants given by president.

7.  As per oath of military officers they have to OBSERVE first before OBEYING orders of President and any other military officer put over them as their commanding officers.  Command is legally defined word and can not be delegated or exercised under advice. That means even President can not delegate his powers of command to PM or the powers of command as per definition can also not be exercised on advice. Means while exercising his powers of command, President is not bound by advice of cabinet as military commands are absolute authority.

8. In practice it is Cabinet which advices president in his functions and under article 74 this advice is mandatory on President to follow. On matters of defence it is cabinet committee on security which takes all executive political decisions to advice President.

Now the question is "Is article 74 applicable on Military Authority of Command by the President and his subordinate Military Officers"? Further, article 34 gives military powers to declare martial law suspending civil political authority? There exists a serious ambiguity.

1. What is the correlation between article 74 and powers of military command of supreme commander?  As per legal definition of command it can not be delegated or exercised under advice. Does that means advice of cabinet on military matters are not binding on president and he can exercise his military authority of command without any reference to cabinet?

2. What is the correlation between article 73 and article 34? Article 34 gives powers of declaring martial laws to military commanders.

What if orders of President and Cabinet to military are different? Whose orders military officers shall observe to check its political correctness and then obey it? They take oath to observe and obey the orders of the president. Military orders are absolute in nature. Military officers if go by their oath then shall follow the orders of President and not the PM.

As per law, Military Chiefs hold appointment under a warrant of President. By oath and warrant their loyalties are towards president and not the PM.

Constitution is vague and leaves a serious gap in decision making on matters of defense.

Article 53, in fact demands a law for the president to exercise his military authority. Unfortunately same is missing.

India is a nuclear power today. What if President overrules PM on usage of Nuke?
Defence of India shall not be left into such deep vagueness.

Law makers shall debate this issue and make suitable legal provisions on

1. For President to exercise his military authority in accordance with law as envisaged under article 53.

2. For functioning of Cabinet Committee on Security and process of declaring war and peace by President. Defense of India is as serious a matter as passing a finance bill. Surprisingly procedure on finance bills are so clearly defined but decision making process on defence is missing.

3. To clarify correlation between article 34 and 53 (II) on one hand and article 74 on other.

4. To make laws for service conditions of defense personals under article 309 to 313 removing serious gaps in management of military personals. Practice of defense regulations are more followed under monarchy. Surprisingly Indian military still has many provisions regulated through such regulations and laws are missing.

The vagueness as existing in higher political and military management of defence in India is serious cause of concern specially so when India is a nuclear power. Management of defense of India needs clear constitutional provisions and law makers shall consider same.

Let good sense prevail