Monday, August 29, 2016

Myth & Reality; There will be No wars in South Asia as Nuke Parity Exist

Nukes do deter wars as part of military power of any nation specially so if parity or near parity exists between adversaries but saying that there will be no war is also not correct. Since the time when Russia and USA went nuclear, chances of industrial war at the scale of WW II have surely diminished as nukes and emerging advanced technologies changed the wars strategies. In spite of nukes, wars have not stopped but its shape has changed. 

In spite of being nuclear power, Soviet Russia faced withdrawal in Afghanistan against US backed forces and disintegrated. In spite of nukes, frequency of short limited wars have gone up where in more civilians are being killed. In spite of nukes, revived Russia and USA are fighting their wars in Syria. In fact, wars in Iraq were also triggered due to Russia and EU encouraging Saddam to dump dollar and accept other currencies for oil trade.  In spite of nukes, more and more hot spots like South China sea are heating up.In spite of Nukes, Russia has split Ukraine. In spite of nukes, most powerful nations have increased their defense spending and preparing for WW III now. . 

Arrival of robotized  weapon systems integrated with artificial intelligence assisted war management, has increased more chances of war. The shape of WW III will not be the same as WWII. The shape of WW II was not same as WWI.  Military war doctrines and strategies do changes with time and advent of technologies make tremendous impact. As long humans are infested with greed, wars will remain. The WW III will surely not be fought purely for defending territorial empires but economic one and accordingly war doctrine of hybrid wars has emerged. 

Since Independence, Indian military has never been equipped to fight wars at the scale of WW II. Indian military is a pure defensive force designed to fight short wars focusing more on territorial defense than destruction of enemy forces. The strategy itself cuts the potential of military power by almost 70%. Nukes in South Asia, have also not deterred wars. Just after India and Pak arming themselves with nukes, Kargil war happened which lasted for almost 3 months.

In following situations, in spite of India having nukes, in next 25 years the war can not be avoided:

1. Pak China join hands and convert red insurgency within India into a serious military threat in Indian heartland of UP and Bihar or

2.  Pak China join hands to capture Kashmir with Leh going to China and valley to Pakistan. Or

3. Indian and Chinese navies fight battles in Indian ocean for its dominance. Or

4.  Pak disintegrates and India launches military campaign with USA to save nukes falling in hands with Islamic Jehadis. Or some Islamic Jehadi take Pak nuke in control and fires it on India. Or

5.  India fights wars in middle east or in Afghanistan or in South China Sea to protect national interests. Or

6.  Already simmering tension as prelude to WW III forces India to take sides.

and some more.

In fact in the emerging scenarios, Indian military needs more modernization and be ready to fight wars not only beyond borders but within borders too. The threat is real specially so when Indian economy has made arrival globally. Modern wars will be fought not only to capture territories but attack economic frontiers and its core. The force structuring of Indian military and present strategy is totally outdated and needs doctrinal shift as early as possible. The shagging moral of Indian military soldiers due to humiliating treatments by 7th Pay Commission, is also sending wrong signals to India's potential enemies. No wonder in Kashmir, Pak has increased her attacks and India is on defensive.